Fonterra shareholders benefit from shift in strategy and nitrogen problems in Europe. Rewards come from huge dividends, higher earnings and a potential rerating.
For what it’s worth, Fonterra is uninvestable for me. The co-operative structure is not in favour of investors. Since IPO, it’s been a very poor performing investment. They expanded overseas and overpaid for acquisitions. It’s common knowledge they have a bloated cost base (I personally knew people working there getting paid ridiculous sums for as they told me, not doing much). It may also pay to note Nz is going through a power crisis with a number of large companies shutting down this week alone with wholesale power prices up from $150Mw/hr a year ago to $800 at present. A lead story in the business news today is the impact it’s having on Fonterra.
For me, I’ve always avoided buying these units (they aren’t shares) and advising my clients in the past to do the same (our broking firm was involved in the IPO by the way)
Yes it looks cheap ish … but there are far better interment opportunities in Nz than this one. All the best.
Interesting take. What companies in NZ do you like? Personally, I did not find many stocks here in NZ that are worthy of investment. Most of them are expensive and have run up to prices above the level I would pay.
True that Fonterra historically has been a poor investment. The overseas expansion was part of the problem. They are currently divesting those assets, and the company already paid down its debt levels. Furthermore, Fonterra has shown a focus on rewarding share/unitholders with big dividends.
Short term moves in electricity prices will not have too much impact in the long term.
Not saying Fonterra is the leanest operation, but the NZ milk is strategically advantaged in the world & Fonterra the dominant player. Europe milk production will decline. Fonterra in my opinion should be able to get a 10% return on assets. Which at current prices makes it an attractive non correlated proposition.
More good news at Fonterra is not only looking at selling their underperforming consumer brands division. Fonterra also presented good results and increased the earnings guidance to 60-70c NZD (from 50-65c NZD range). Not bad for a stock trading at 4 NZD.
Nestle is paying Fonterra farmers who meet certain sustainability criteria an additional 1-2 cents per kg of milk solids. Not yet significant, but a sign that more sustainable farmer is resulting in higher pay.
Apologies if a stupid question, but why have you taken FSF (Fonterra Shareholders' Fund) rather than the underlying Fonterra Co-operative Group? One of the reasons I ask is that the former is a PFIC for US investors. Thanks & great work as always!
Not a stupid question at all. Not a specialist of US tax law so can't answer that part of the question.
The problem with the underlying Fonterra Co-operative Group is that you have to deliver milk to Fonterra to own shares in the underlying Co-operative. I can't buy them through my broker.
Given the current management I would not be surprised if this structure is changed, but this is pure speculation.
Especially relating to the broader spectrum of the milk industry. The nitrogen discussion for instance is a huge problems in the Netherlands (also a milk industry country). In my opion, Fronterra has chosen the right strategy.
For what it’s worth, Fonterra is uninvestable for me. The co-operative structure is not in favour of investors. Since IPO, it’s been a very poor performing investment. They expanded overseas and overpaid for acquisitions. It’s common knowledge they have a bloated cost base (I personally knew people working there getting paid ridiculous sums for as they told me, not doing much). It may also pay to note Nz is going through a power crisis with a number of large companies shutting down this week alone with wholesale power prices up from $150Mw/hr a year ago to $800 at present. A lead story in the business news today is the impact it’s having on Fonterra.
For me, I’ve always avoided buying these units (they aren’t shares) and advising my clients in the past to do the same (our broking firm was involved in the IPO by the way)
Yes it looks cheap ish … but there are far better interment opportunities in Nz than this one. All the best.
Interesting take. What companies in NZ do you like? Personally, I did not find many stocks here in NZ that are worthy of investment. Most of them are expensive and have run up to prices above the level I would pay.
True that Fonterra historically has been a poor investment. The overseas expansion was part of the problem. They are currently divesting those assets, and the company already paid down its debt levels. Furthermore, Fonterra has shown a focus on rewarding share/unitholders with big dividends.
Short term moves in electricity prices will not have too much impact in the long term.
Not saying Fonterra is the leanest operation, but the NZ milk is strategically advantaged in the world & Fonterra the dominant player. Europe milk production will decline. Fonterra in my opinion should be able to get a 10% return on assets. Which at current prices makes it an attractive non correlated proposition.
More good news at Fonterra is not only looking at selling their underperforming consumer brands division. Fonterra also presented good results and increased the earnings guidance to 60-70c NZD (from 50-65c NZD range). Not bad for a stock trading at 4 NZD.
The largest Dutch dairy cooperative is laying off 1,800 people. Currently, FrieslandCampina employs 22,000 people. FrieslandCampina had to make this tough decision after terrible half-year results and will save €200M. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/dutch-dairy-cooperative-frieslandcampina-cuts-1800-jobs-2023-12-12/
Nestle is paying Fonterra farmers who meet certain sustainability criteria an additional 1-2 cents per kg of milk solids. Not yet significant, but a sign that more sustainable farmer is resulting in higher pay.
https://www.fonterra.com/nz/en/our-stowhories/media/nestle-partnership-sees-extra-payment-offered-to-Fonterra-farmers-this-season.html
Retreating competition and being rewarded for sustainability is great news for Fonterra.
Apologies if a stupid question, but why have you taken FSF (Fonterra Shareholders' Fund) rather than the underlying Fonterra Co-operative Group? One of the reasons I ask is that the former is a PFIC for US investors. Thanks & great work as always!
Not a stupid question at all. Not a specialist of US tax law so can't answer that part of the question.
The problem with the underlying Fonterra Co-operative Group is that you have to deliver milk to Fonterra to own shares in the underlying Co-operative. I can't buy them through my broker.
Given the current management I would not be surprised if this structure is changed, but this is pure speculation.
Interesting thoughts...
Especially relating to the broader spectrum of the milk industry. The nitrogen discussion for instance is a huge problems in the Netherlands (also a milk industry country). In my opion, Fronterra has chosen the right strategy.